Sun, Oct 30, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 18 | 114 | 230 |
| EDM | 15 | 316 | 09 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Corey Potter · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 3:58STLDavid BackesAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Roman Polak · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:31EDMRyan SmythAssists: Alex Plante, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 13:16EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 17:15EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Tom Gilbert, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 3:17STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:14STLMatt D'Agostini: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:50EDMRyan Jones: Interference2 min
- P1 9:41STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P1 10:43EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:04STLT.J. Oshie: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:18STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:56EDMEric Belanger: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund3:19
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Stewart – Berglund4:06
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nichol – D'Agostini – Grachev4:44
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Stewart – Berglund3:15
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Polak11:01
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:13
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Shattenkirk3:01
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEager – Petrell – Lander8:12
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Belanger – Gagner – Paajarvi8:40
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones12:09
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:21
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeckham – Plante9:36
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Potter – Petry13:40
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Smid14:38
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).