Mon, Oct 31, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 110 | 07 | 226 |
| NYR | 28 | 316 | 07 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:53NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 17:50SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Douglas Murray, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–2
- P2 11:03SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joe Pavelski, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:00NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Erik Christensen, Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 16:42NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Erik Christensen, Jeff Woywitka · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 19:12NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:07NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:17SJSAndrew Desjardins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:25SJSMartin Havlat: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:00SJSColin White: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56NYRBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:29SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:38NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:44NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:52SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski10:08
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture6:30
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Handzus – Desjardins – McGinn2:19
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Mitchell3:07
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray11:03
xG 0.87–0.55 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic11:20
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- White – Demers6:49
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Wolski – Stepan8:22
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Christensen – Deveaux – Anisimov4:35
xG 0.40–0.14 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Wolski2:13
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan10:39
xG 0.55–0.81 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Del Zotto13:28
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Eminger12:00
xG 0.93–0.82 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh16:00
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).