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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 31, 2011·United Center, Chicago

Nashville Predators 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (OT)

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.

CHI winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NSH192111800428
CHI181621813535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:26NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: David Legwand, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:11CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:00NSHCraig SmithAssists: Martin Erat, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:51CHINick LeddyAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:48NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Pekka Rinne · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:57CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. P3 13:08CHIBryan BickellAssists: Michael Frolik, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P3 14:49NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Jack Hillen · Snap, 0.30 xG4–4
  9. OT 2:18CHIViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:06NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min
  2. P1 2:47NSHBlake Geoffrion: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 9:38NSHFrancis Bouillon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P1 13:17CHIBryan Bickell: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 2:11CHIBryan Bickell: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 2:11NSHJack Hillen: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 13:52NSHDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 17:20CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  9. P2 17:45CHIDave Bolland: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 5:49NSHMartin Erat: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 6:15NSHJerred Smithson: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 6:15NSHMatt Halischuk: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 16:37NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
45% to win55% to win
← NSH attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCHI
28Shots on goal35
2.7Expected goals4.0
38Shot attempts74
26Faceoffs won42
3Power plays7
26Penalty minutes8
24Hits17
18Blocked shots5
5Giveaways14
8Takeaways16

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:18

    xG 0.55–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2

  2. Smithson – Tootoo – Geoffrion3:02

    xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  3. Smithson – Tootoo – Bergfors2:08

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  4. McGrattan – Geoffrion – Thang3:56

    xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Bouillon – Klein10:43

    xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 6–14goals 1–4

  2. Suter – Weber15:59

    xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0

  3. Blum – Hillen9:13

    xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestHossa – Sharp – Kane8:47

    xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 13–2goals 3–0

  2. Bolland – Bickell – Frolik9:39

    xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1

  3. Mayers – Scott – Kruger2:40

    xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Brunette – Stalberg – Toews7:24

    xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestHjalmarsson – Leddy3:30

    xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0

  2. Lepisto – Leddy2:07

    xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  3. Montador – Lepisto10:28

    xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 4.0 xGNSH 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHINSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #19 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.18 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.

CHI winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).