Tue, Nov 1, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 07 | 110 | 326 |
| BOS | 117 | 216 | 28 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19OTTNick FolignoAssists: Stephane Da Costa, Bobby Butler · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:12BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 7:28OTTStephane Da CostaAssists: Nick Foligno, Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:21BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Tyler Seguin, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 18:00BOSChris KellyAssists: Rich Peverley, Zdeno Chara · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 5:04OTTJared CowenAssists: Chris Neil, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 6:41BOSJohnny BoychukGWGAssists: Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 7:18BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Shawn Thornton, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:46OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:23OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:23BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:31OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:40BOSGregory Campbell: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:40BOSGregory Campbell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:40OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:30OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:32BOSNathan Horton: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:49OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:14OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:03BOSBrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:18BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:18OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:47OTTJason Spezza: Holding2 min
- P3 19:47OTTChris Neil: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Smith – Butler3:03
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Da Costa4:19
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–1goals 2–1
- Neil – Condra – Smith5:34
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Butler – Da Costa4:15
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Karlsson3:05
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Rundblad3:54
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Kuba – Karlsson13:34
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:46
xG 0.83–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Caron5:41
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 2–2
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:50
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:46
xG 0.22–0.22 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk11:27
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Ference – McQuaid9:36
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:08
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).