Tue, Nov 1, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 5, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 314 | 24 | 03 | 521 |
| CGY | 08 | 012 | 19 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen, Manny Malhotra · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:42VANAlexandre BurrowsPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Alexander Edler · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 19:41VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 3:47VANCody HodgsonAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Dale Weise · Snap, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 11:43VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Cody Hodgson, David Booth · Slap, 0.06 xG5–0
- P3 19:28CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Chris Butler · Deflected, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:22CGYRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P1 11:48CGYChris Butler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:27CGYRoman Horak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:41VANAaron Volpatti: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:18CGYRoman Horak: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:24VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:58CGYScott Hannan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:21CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:54VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min
- P3 19:11CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:11VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:24
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Hodgson7:39
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti8:24
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Higgins – Hansen8:21
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa14:30
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Salo – Edler12:59
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Ballard – Sulzer11:00
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Bourque – Horak5:07
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross8:07
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay6:55
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan7:02
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Smith9:24
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler13:43
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Sarich – Giordano2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).