Wed, Nov 2, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 39 | 07 | 523 |
| NJD | 16 | 211 | 05 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37TORJoey CrabbAssists: Matthew Lombardi, John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:16NJDDainius ZubrusPPAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 15:50TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jake Gardiner, Jonas Gustavsson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 3:29NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Adam Larsson, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 6:31TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Mike Komisarek, Tim Connolly · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 8:15NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Nick Palmieri, Brad Mills · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 9:45TORJoffrey LupulGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 13:13TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.12 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:08NJDBrad Mills: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:08TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:21TORPhilippe Dupuis: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:42NJDPetr Sykora: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:09TORJonas Gustavsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:41NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:41TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:03NJDMattias Tedenby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lupul – Kessel11:19
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Steckel – Dupuis – Brown8:11
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Crabb – Bozak11:40
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:24
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Komisarek15:23
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:20
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Liles – Gunnarsson3:01
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Mills – Palmieri3:03
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Janssen – Carter – Tedenby2:26
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:59
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Carter – Tedenby5:40
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Fayne8:56
xG 0.15–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov12:23
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Greene – Larsson8:49
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).