Wed, Nov 2, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 110 | 29 | 428 |
| COL | 011 | 117 | 012 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Derek Morris, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 17:57PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 18:23COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 0:24PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: David Schlemko, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:27PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Ray Whitney, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:42PHXBoyd Gordon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:48PHXDaymond Langkow: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:18COLKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:17PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:32PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Korpikoski12:47
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Torres – O'Sullivan – Miele6:26
xG 0.12–0.40 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:32
xG 0.60–1.20 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Gordon – Boedker14:00
xG 0.28–1.06 (21%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson16:02
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Klesla – Schlemko14:50
xG 0.88–1.46 (38%)attempts 13–22goals 2–1
- Morris – Yandle13:57
xG 0.58–1.23 (32%)attempts 12–24goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Lindstrom – Stastny6:09
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:12
xG 1.04–0.61 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Hejduk – Stastny – Galiardi6:03
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Jones – Duchene5:11
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – O'Brien15:31
xG 1.36–0.47 (74%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda4:26
xG 0.51–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson8:08
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).