Thu, Nov 3, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 1, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 02 | 110 | 015 | 01 | 1 | 128 |
| NYR | 110 | 09 | 04 | 02 | 2 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:32NYRJeff WoywitkaAssists: Marian Gaborik, Ruslan Fedotenko · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 18:18ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYR Erik Christensen scored
- 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 3. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 4. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
- 5. NYR Marian Gaborik scored
- 6. ANA Bobby Ryan stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:35NYRAndre Deveaux: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:35ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:40NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:40ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:58ANATeemu Selanne: Interference2 min
- P2 5:00ANALubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:39ANASheldon Brookbank: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:46NYRMichael Del Zotto: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32ANAGeorge Parros: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:12NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan17:21
xG 0.93–0.19 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Gordon – Beleskey – McMillan6:49
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Parros – Macenauer – Smith-Pelly4:09
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano12:44
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler15:17
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa7:03
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky13:36
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Wolski – Stepan3:21
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust4:18
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Prust – Anisimov4:27
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Gaborik – Stepan5:06
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Del Zotto15:14
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Eminger8:42
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh18:48
xG 0.63–0.95 (40%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).