Thu, Nov 3, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 221 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 439 |
| PHI | 05 | 29 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:28PHIZac RinaldoAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:08PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Andreas Lilja · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 8:59NJDZach PariseAssists: Adam Henrique, Ilya Kovalchuk · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:57NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:37PHIMax TalbotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–3
- P3 13:25NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Patrik Elias · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 2. NJD Zach Parise scored
- 3. PHI Daniel Brière scored
- 4. NJD Petr Sykora stopped
- 5. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 6. NJD Patrik Elias scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:24NJDZach Parise: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 3:24PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:02NJDHenrik Tallinder: Interference2 min
- P1 11:12NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 12:22NJDMark Fraser: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:57PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P2 12:10NJDMark Fraser: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:21PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:06PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:58NJDNick Palmieri: Interference2 min
- P3 6:02NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:47
xG 1.35–0.39 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Clarkson – Carter – Palmieri9:15
xG 0.92–0.05 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:08
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fraser10:08
xG 1.31–0.44 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Salvador – Larsson12:59
xG 0.98–0.26 (79%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Tallinder – Fayne13:41
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Talbot – Nodl – Simmonds5:18
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Voracek – Couturier3:36
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Voracek – Zolnierczyk6:25
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux12:24
xG 0.39–1.61 (19%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Timonen – Coburn13:47
xG 0.38–0.79 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Lilja – Meszaros10:36
xG 0.14–0.71 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Lilja – Coburn2:37
xG 0.00–0.61 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).