Thu, Nov 3, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 24 | 210 | 04 | 418 |
| CBJ | 011 | 114 | 014 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09TORJoey CrabbAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:45TORClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 0:50TORJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 5:31TORClarke MacArthurUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P2 11:20CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Antoine Vermette, Matt Calvert · Tip-in, 0.52 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:56TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:35TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:56CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:31CBJAlexandre Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
- P3 2:19TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Dupuis – Brown9:05
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:09
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Connolly – Lupul – Kessel10:48
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Crabb – Bozak8:15
xG 0.48–1.26 (27%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Liles – Komisarek14:20
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Komisarek – Gardiner2:41
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:04
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Calvert – Johansen9:59
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Prospal – Umberger – Nash5:04
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Bass5:02
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Prospal – MacKenzie – Nash9:19
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Russell10:05
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski17:32
xG 0.60–0.22 (74%)attempts 19–9goals 0–2
- Methot – Moore15:51
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).