Fri, Nov 4, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 015 | 28 | 39 | 532 |
| CAR | 110 | 010 | 05 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26CARAnthony StewartAssists: Jay Harrison, Jeff Skinner · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:28WSHJeff HalpernAssists: Mike Knuble, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 2:37WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Cody Eakin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 3:15WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 10:49WSHCody EakinAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 15:52WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:36CARCam Ward: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:36WSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:31WSHRoman Hamrlik: Holding2 min
- P2 12:59WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:38CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02CARTuomo Ruutu: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Halpern – Hendricks9:21
xG 0.58–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom8:38
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Johansson – Eakin2:25
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom4:34
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Wideman13:12
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Alzner13:56
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Hamrlik – Carlson16:00
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Stewart – Skinner6:18
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner5:11
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter3:11
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Ruutu – Stewart4:03
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Harrison16:09
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Gleason – Pitkanen3:21
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason10:32
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).