Fri, Nov 4, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 210 | 04 | 226 |
| OTT | 04 | 014 | 116 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:55MTLErik ColeAssists: Michael Cammalleri, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 16:55MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 1:07OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Erik Condra, Filip Kuba · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:54MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:40OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:37MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:08OTTMilan Michalek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:16MTLLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P3 18:29MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Kostitsyn – Eller13:07
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Cammalleri – Desharnais9:58
xG 0.23–0.19 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Darche – Nokelainen – Blunden6:37
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty13:19
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Diaz14:04
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban15:12
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Spacek – Weber14:16
xG 0.37–0.87 (30%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Butler – Da Costa8:48
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Neil – Daugavins – Smith9:04
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Condra – Winchester – Filatov5:57
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith2:50
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips15:26
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Lee – Cowen11:14
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson16:52
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 18–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).