Fri, Nov 4, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 011 | 17 | 230 |
| STL | 19 | 110 | 19 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:13VANAlexandre BurrowsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 14:50STLT.J. OshieAssists: Scott Nichol, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:28STLT.J. OshieAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, David Backes · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P3 0:23VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Alexander Edler · Tip-in, 0.38 xG2–2
- P3 5:59STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:52STLChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:54STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:54VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:29VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:36STLEvgeny Grachev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52STLScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:52VANDavid Booth: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:16VANDavid Booth: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:49STLAlexander Steen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Burrows – Kesler5:19
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Booth – Hodgson6:51
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen12:24
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Higgins – Kesler – Hodgson3:01
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ballard – Sulzer14:42
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Alberts15:22
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Edler14:35
xG 0.16–1.08 (13%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Sobotka9:57
xG 1.18–0.26 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Steen12:53
xG 0.44–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund9:07
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Nichol – Reaves – Grachev4:52
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk16:29
xG 1.19–0.58 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo17:55
xG 1.09–0.64 (63%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Polak – Chorney10:01
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).