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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 4, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Colorado Avalanche 6, Dallas Stars 7 (OT)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

6

Final

Overtime

Home

Dallas Stars

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.

DAL winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
COL21321421003640
DAL0341221212729

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:36COLJay McClementAssists: Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:17COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:39DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P2 12:44DALSheldon SourayPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Adam Burish · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:21DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Michael Ryder, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:02DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
  7. P2 17:45COLMatt DucheneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
  8. P2 18:28COLPaul StastnyAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
  9. P3 1:57COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Shane O'Brien, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
  10. P3 6:01DALEric NystromPPAssists: Radek Dvorak, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–5
  11. P3 8:32COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Erik Johnson, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–5
  12. P3 15:50DALStephane RobidasAssists: Michael Ryder, Sheldon Souray · Tip-in, 0.11 xG6–6
  13. OT 3:55DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Stephane Robidas, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–7
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:24DALRadek Dvorak: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 16:46DALMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:53DALStephane Robidas: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 4:05COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:09COLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
  6. P2 12:39COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 16:30COLDavid Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:10DALNicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 4:01COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 6:18COLMilan Hejduk: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 7:49DALMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min · PPG
  12. P3 18:49DALTrevor Daley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 18:49COLDaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
45% to win55% to win
← COL attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLDAL
40Shots on goal29
4.0Expected goals3.0
69Shot attempts61
35Faceoffs won37
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
20Hits30
13Blocked shots16
3Giveaways10
6Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene10:46

    xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0

  2. Kobasew – McClement – McLeod2:24

    xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0

  3. Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:46

    xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0

  4. Lindstrom – Jones – Galiardi4:59

    xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestQuincey – O'Brien12:25

    xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1

  2. Johnson – Wilson9:28

    xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0

  3. O'Byrne – Hejda9:21

    xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestBarch – Petersen – Dowell5:19

    xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

  2. Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish13:02

    xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0

  3. Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:25

    xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 15–11goals 0–3

  4. Ryder – Eriksson – Benn10:21

    xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Pardy11:50

    xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0

  2. Souray – Robidas13:48

    xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2

  3. Daley – Grossmann13:39

    xG 0.48–0.78 (38%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.0 xGCOL 4.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #3 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.94 · 13 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.

DAL winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).