Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Winnipeg Jets 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 07 | 28 | 00 | 223 |
| NJD | 09 | 26 | 08 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:08NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Bryce Salvador · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:59NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 6:43WPGMark FloodAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 17:15WPGJim SlaterAssists: Mark Flood, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 1:28NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:54NJDPatrik Elias: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:42NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:42WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:33NJDAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:26WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:50NJDDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:12WPGEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Glass7:24
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Ladd – Little15:07
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- McArdle – Stapleton – Maxwell3:08
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Kane – Burmistrov16:47
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFlood – Byfuglien15:42
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Oduya – Byfuglien2:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Flood – Bogosian2:26
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Zubrus11:56
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Janssen – Pelley – Mills3:48
xG 0.01–0.02 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Palmieri – Tedenby11:02
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Parise – Clarkson – Henrique13:01
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne16:43
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Salvador – Larsson18:32
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Fraser10:53
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).