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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York

Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Rangers 5

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.

NYR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL03213112328
NYR3161617529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:57NYRErik ChristensenPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:28NYRDan GirardiAssists: Artem Anisimov, Erik Christensen · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:40NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 0:24MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:20MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.42 xG2–3
  6. P2 18:50NYRBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Brandon Prust, Andre Deveaux · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:10MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:21NYRRyan CallahanENAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 1:24MTLMax Pacioretty: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 4:18NYRRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:18MTLMike Blunden: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P1 4:18NYRMichael Sauer: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 4:18MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 4:18MTLMathieu Darche: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P1 4:18NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 4:18MTLMike Blunden: Interference2 min
  9. P1 4:18MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Game misconduct10 min
  10. P1 4:18MTLHal Gill: Roughing2 min
  11. P1 4:18NYRMichael Sauer: Game misconduct10 min
  12. P1 8:21MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
  13. P1 10:48MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min
  14. P2 0:45MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
  15. P2 8:17MTLBrian Gionta: High sticking2 min
  16. P2 10:40NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min · PPG
  17. P2 11:48NYRHenrik Lundqvist: Holding2 min
  18. P2 14:56MTLYannick Weber: High sticking2 min
  19. P3 13:19MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
45% to win55% to win
← MTL attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Stepan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLNYR
28Shots on goal29
4.3Expected goals4.3
60Shot attempts44
19Faceoffs won31
2Power plays9
40Penalty minutes26
25Hits18
6Blocked shots15
1Giveaways8
10Takeaways14

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestGionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty10:20

    xG 0.98–0.46 (68%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0

  2. Cole – Cammalleri – Desharnais6:45

    xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1

  3. Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller7:58

    xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGorges – Subban12:17

    xG 1.05–0.19 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0

  2. Gill – Diaz11:24

    xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  3. Spacek – Diaz2:20

    xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan5:57

    xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

  2. Avery – Christensen – Deveaux2:42

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan7:26

    xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1

  4. Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:08

    xG 0.71–0.91 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGirardi – McDonagh5:22

    xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  2. Woywitka – Girardi4:25

    xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Woywitka – Eminger2:10

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.3 xGMTL 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #260 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.

NYR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).