Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 06 | 221 | 235 |
| PHI | 517 | 310 | 16 | 933 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 3:09PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 13:09PHIMax TalbotGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 14:37PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P1 19:25PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Max Talbot, Andrej Meszaros · Snap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P2 7:08PHISean CouturierSHAssists: Braydon Coburn, Eric Wellwood · Snap, 0.15 xG0–6
- P2 15:50PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–7
- P2 16:10PHIMatt CarleAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Daniel Brière · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–8
- P3 13:13CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Rick Nash · Snap, 0.10 xG1–8
- P3 16:27PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Harry Zolnierczyk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–9
- P3 17:30CBJGrant ClitsomeAssists: Vinny Prospal, Aaron Johnson · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–9
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:46CBJJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:53PHIMatt Carle: Interference2 min
- P1 2:27CBJSteve Mason: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:38CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:14CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:14PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:04PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:04CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:06PHIAndreas Lilja: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:09CBJRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:23PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:23CBJJames Wisniewski: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Nash – Dorsett3:54
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Calvert – Atkinson4:34
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Calvert – Johansen4:55
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Pahlsson – Bass – Dorsett3:15
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Clitsome6:22
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 2–1
- Tyutin – Moore6:25
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Methot8:53
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux8:41
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Wellwood10:52
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds6:45
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier7:02
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gustafsson11:43
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Timonen – Coburn5:49
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gustafsson4:03
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).