Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 0, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 06 | 09 | 022 |
| DET | 118 | 218 | 214 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04DETNiklas KronwallGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Johan Franzen · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:55DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:45DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Drew Miller, Fabian Brunnstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 1:39DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Ian White · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 10:37DETJohan FranzenAssists: Ian White · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:58ANAMaxime Macenauer: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:56ANAKurtis Foster: Interference2 min
- P1 15:55DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:36DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:29DETJiri Hudler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:02ANATeemu Selanne: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 1:02ANATeemu Selanne: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:39ANATeemu Selanne: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:20ANAKurtis Foster: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:51DETFabian Brunnstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:03DETJonathan Ericsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcMillan – Holland – Smith-Pelly6:21
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly3:39
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey2:07
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Gordon – Beleskey – Macenauer4:05
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Visnovsky9:27
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:57
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Foster – Sbisa13:09
xG 0.43–1.13 (28%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Abdelkader – Helm8:31
xG 0.96–0.03 (97%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Franzen8:33
xG 1.03–0.30 (77%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Holmstrom – Cleary – Datsyuk10:31
xG 0.73–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Emmerton – Brunnstrom7:41
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White14:55
xG 1.62–0.36 (82%)attempts 23–6goals 3–0
- Stuart – Kronwall16:59
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Commodore – Ericsson12:35
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).