Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 013 | 113 | 131 |
| MIN | 05 | 210 | 011 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:39MINDany HeatleyAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 18:42MINGuillaume LatendresseGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 17:58STLJamie LangenbrunnerAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:54STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:05STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:36MINMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min
- P2 12:23MINJustin Falk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:34MINDarroll Powe: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:34STLScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:06MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06MINMarek Zidlicky: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06STLJason Arnott: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06MINNick Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06STLJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:03MINGuillaume Latendresse: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:03STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:03STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Steen8:21
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Grachev3:16
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Nichol – Reaves – Grachev4:51
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka8:29
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo3:07
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:00
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo14:54
xG 0.93–0.76 (55%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Latendresse14:09
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi13:19
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Powe – Gillies5:11
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Clutterbuck10:02
xG 0.55–1.39 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon16:03
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Falk – Prosser15:39
xG 0.81–1.14 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Schultz – Zidlicky14:57
xG 0.62–0.98 (39%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).