Sat, Nov 5, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 010 | 18 | 01 | 2 | 333 |
| LAK | 08 | 113 | 15 | 00 | 1 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:45PITSteve SullivanPPAssists: Kris Letang, James Neal · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:34LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams, Matt Greene · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 13:49LAKSimon GagneAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 17:03PITChris KunitzAssists: Jordan Staal, Pascal Dupuis · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Jarret Stoll stopped
- 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 3. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 4. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 5. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
- 6. PIT James Neal stopped
- 7. LAK Simon Gagne stopped
- 8. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:37LAKSimon Gagne: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:27LAKEthan Moreau: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:50PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:04LAKWillie Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:34LAKEthan Moreau: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:38LAKRob Scuderi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:11PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:53PITChris Kunitz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:54PITRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:06LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Staal9:12
xG 0.81–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Malkin – Neal9:32
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Park – Adams – Letestu2:24
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Asham – Cooke – Vitale3:50
xG 0.11–0.41 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang3:05
xG 0.38–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bortuzzo6:44
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland5:58
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Williams – Kopitar11:06
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Richardson – Westgarth – Clifford2:05
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Moreau – Stoll – Penner9:25
xG 0.08–0.47 (15%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Brown – Richards – Parse10:57
xG 0.25–1.06 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez10:06
xG 1.03–0.34 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Greene2:32
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson16:29
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).