Sun, Nov 6, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 311 | 28 | 08 | 527 |
| CAR | 17 | 011 | 114 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:20DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Sheldon Souray · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:55DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 13:18CARChad LaRosePPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P1 19:32DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 3:48DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P2 18:00DALJamie BennSHAssists: Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 2:03CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Derek Joslin, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:24DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:24CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:13CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09DALNicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:49DALNicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:15CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:03DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37DALVernon Fiddler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:31DALNicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:50CARJeff Skinner: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:30DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 19:24DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:24CARDerek Joslin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:24DALAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Eriksson – Benn12:07
xG 1.07–0.75 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell4:49
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom6:09
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish11:45
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas11:10
xG 0.88–0.65 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Fistric – Goligoski15:21
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann13:14
xG 0.51–0.75 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Ruutu – Boychuk4:22
xG 0.93–0.03 (97%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Dwyer – Sutter3:39
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Bowman2:45
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner12:47
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Joslin6:40
xG 1.00–0.08 (93%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason15:59
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Pitkanen5:55
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).