Sun, Nov 6, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 212 | 110 | 06 | 1 | 437 |
| FLA | 316 | 012 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49FLABrian CampbellPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:05FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Jack Skille, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 15:21FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 16:20TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Steven Stamkos, Eric Brewer · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Gilroy, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:11TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Steve Downie, Eric Brewer · Tip-in, 0.30 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 2. FLA Kris Versteeg stopped
- 3. TBL Steve Downie stopped
- 4. FLA Marcel Goc stopped
- 5. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 6. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 7. TBL Dominic Moore scored
- 8. FLA Sean Bergenheim stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:27TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:54FLAJack Skille: Holding2 min
- P2 15:18FLAMike Santorelli: Holding2 min
- P3 0:51TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:26FLAKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos10:53
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Thompson – Downie3:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hall – Jones – Pyatt3:57
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Thompson – Pyatt4:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Gilroy18:04
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 15–22goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Gilroy2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Clark – Gervais2:18
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Upshall – Santorelli9:56
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Bradley – Bergenheim – Matthias6:45
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sturm – Bradley – Matthias2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Goc – Bergenheim – Skille2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison20:10
xG 1.15–0.35 (77%)attempts 25–8goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:24
xG 0.62–0.61 (50%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Ellerby12:20
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).