Sun, Nov 6, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 111 | 07 | 223 |
| COL | 19 | 09 | 015 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34COLPaul StastnyAssists: Shane O'Brien, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.37 xG0–1
- P1 5:19CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Scott Hannan, Tom Kostopoulos · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:54CGYCurtis GlencrossPPGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:28COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:45COLMilan Hejduk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:44CGYScott Hannan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Letourneau-Leblond6:15
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan2:07
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hagman – Stajan – Stempniak11:13
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Horak10:25
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Giordano17:47
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 12–24goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Smith10:03
xG 0.13–0.53 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler22:04
xG 0.38–0.85 (31%)attempts 17–24goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene13:37
xG 1.09–0.18 (86%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog16:18
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Duchene2:22
xG 0.02–0.02 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Jones3:11
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – O'Brien16:24
xG 1.37–0.13 (91%)attempts 25–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Wilson19:05
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:42
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).