Mon, Nov 7, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 012 | 06 | 226 |
| BOS | 315 | 016 | 36 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Jordan Caron · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 5:52NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Steve Staios, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 13:38BOSNathan HortonPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P1 14:07BOSTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 18:36NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 4:34BOSMilan LucicAssists: Nathan Horton, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 5:23BOSNathan HortonAssists: Joe Corvo, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–5
- P3 17:12BOSDavid KrejciENAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.71 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:35BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:35NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:11NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:35BOSChris Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:32BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:28BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:05BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPandolfo – Bailey – Martin5:17
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Comeau – Okposo9:58
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Moulson – Grabner – Tavares12:44
xG 0.46–0.86 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen11:12
xG 0.15–0.70 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Hamonic2:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Streit – Jurcina2:32
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staios – Eaton3:08
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:47
xG 1.11–0.16 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:34
xG 1.01–0.35 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 2–2
- Kelly – Pouliot – Caron8:04
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:14
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg17:08
xG 0.83–0.24 (78%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Chara – Boychuk14:45
xG 0.93–0.47 (67%)attempts 18–8goals 1–2
- Ference – McQuaid8:29
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).