Tue, Nov 8, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 114 | 27 | 27 | 528 |
| TOR | 08 | 018 | 113 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45FLAJack SkilleAssists: Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 16:28FLAMarco SturmGWGAssists: Jack Skille, Keaton Ellerby · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 16:47FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 2:32FLASean BergenheimAssists: Shawn Matthias, Matt Bradley · Snap, 0.37 xG4–0
- P3 3:30TORPhil KesselAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.46 xG4–1
- P3 16:35FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.02 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:13FLAMike Santorelli: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:12TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23TORJohn-Michael Liles: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:56FLATomas Fleischmann: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Goc – Skille11:10
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg13:02
xG 0.99–0.30 (76%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Bradley – Bergenheim – Matthias6:47
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Santorelli7:44
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Ellerby10:41
xG 0.95–0.63 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
- Weaver – Kulikov16:19
xG 0.90–0.84 (52%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Campbell – Garrison18:40
xG 0.75–0.98 (43%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak14:07
xG 0.87–0.30 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Crabb – Frattin7:43
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
- Steckel – Dupuis – Brown4:20
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:45
xG 0.66–1.01 (39%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner2:57
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson14:16
xG 0.95–0.88 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Liles – Phaneuf2:02
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).