Tue, Nov 8, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Dallas Stars 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 213 | 013 | 310 | 536 |
| WSH | 110 | 115 | 07 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32DALMichael RyderAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:43WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 17:16DALMichael RyderAssists: Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:56WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Cody Eakin, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 0:24DALAdam BurishGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 7:33DALJamie BennPPAssists: Adam Burish, Sheldon Souray · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 8:05DALEric NystromAssists: Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:08WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:02DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00DALTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:22WSHJohn Erskine: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:41DALMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24WSHDennis Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:02WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:02DALJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:02WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:30DALAdam Burish: Holding2 min
- P3 16:35DALSheldon Souray: Interference2 min
- P3 18:23WSHRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Eriksson – Benn11:33
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell7:31
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish9:42
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:33
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Grossmann13:54
xG 0.62–0.33 (66%)attempts 15–15goals 3–1
- Fistric – Goligoski14:20
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas12:07
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Laich9:02
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Semin – Johansson – Eakin9:00
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom9:47
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Knuble – Halpern – Hendricks5:19
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Alzner13:13
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Erskine – Wideman14:57
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Carlson12:54
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).