Tue, Nov 8, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 16 | 110 | 226 |
| DET | 18 | 212 | 210 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54DETNicklas LidstromUnassisted · Slap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 2:36DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:53DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 8:18COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Matt Duchene, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P3 14:46DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–4
- P3 16:55COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Ryan Wilson, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.33 xG2–4
- P3 19:28DETJohan FranzenENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:27DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:55COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P2 1:29COLPaul Stastny: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:39COLJay McClement: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:32DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:48COLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:47DETPavel Datsyuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:52COLCody McLeod: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:52COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Jones – Stastny2:19
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Kobasew – Stastny4:27
xG 0.01–0.04 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Lindstrom – Jones3:20
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene6:52
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson2:22
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson12:20
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Quincey – O'Brien12:25
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Miller3:54
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Franzen13:53
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Miller – Emmerton – Brunnstrom5:10
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Abdelkader – Helm7:25
xG 0.28–0.24 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:57
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall17:41
xG 1.04–0.64 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Kindl11:38
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).