Tue, Nov 8, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 09 | 012 | 029 |
| STL | 18 | 19 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15STLVladimir SobotkaGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Barret Jackman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:23STLChris StewartPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 13:54STLT.J. OshieAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:35STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:35CHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:20CHIDaniel Carcillo: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:04STLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:42STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:44STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min
- P3 4:16STLJamie Langenbrunner: Interference2 min
- P3 10:14CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Olesz – Kruger2:19
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Frolik – Toews5:35
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Carcillo – Kane6:28
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brunette – Olesz – Bolland2:07
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:51
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Keith – Leddy2:04
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson3:08
xG 0.01–0.18 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka9:00
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Steen11:02
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund8:15
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reaves – Grachev2:34
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk13:42
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:24
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole16:05
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).