Tue, Nov 8, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 3, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 08 | 114 | 330 |
| LAK | 215 | 211 | 04 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29LAKAlec MartinezPPAssists: Justin Williams, Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:13LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jarret Stoll, Kyle Clifford · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 10:41NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 16:02NSHCraig SmithPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 9:28LAKMike RichardsAssists: Dustin Brown, Willie Mitchell · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 12:33LAKSimon GagneGWGAssists: Dustin Penner, Justin Williams · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:39NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:25LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
- P1 2:23NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 4:13NSHJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:43LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:43NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:19LAKSimon Gagne: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20LAKJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:32NSHJordin Tootoo: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:00NSHTeemu Laakso: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:21LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 19:36NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:31LAKDustin Penner: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:02NSHBrian McGrattan: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Fisher – Erat – Tootoo2:03
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Bergfors3:29
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk4:07
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Smith5:40
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Blum3:52
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Weber2:33
xG 0.01–0.02 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Laakso – Hillen8:47
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Williams – Kopitar8:18
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Moreau – Richardson – Clifford2:55
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Moreau – Richardson – Lewis2:29
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Penner8:00
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty10:12
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Greene – Martinez6:23
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Martinez – Doughty2:26
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).