Wed, Nov 9, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 112 | 18 | 432 |
| ANA | 111 | 111 | 011 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20NSHCraig SmithAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:54NSHColin WilsonAssists: Craig Smith, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 19:21ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Cam Fowler, Brandon McMillan · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 12:48NSHMartin EratGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
- P2 14:12ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 1:36NSHCraig SmithAssists: Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:52ANAAndrew Gordon: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:36ANABrandon McMillan: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:13NSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35NSHJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:39ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:48ANALubomir Visnovsky: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 11:19NSHJerred Smithson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:06NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Erat – Kostitsyn7:33
xG 1.17–0.10 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Smith10:35
xG 1.28–0.46 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 3–1
- McGrattan – Bergfors – Geoffrion5:15
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk10:21
xG 0.01–0.30 (4%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein11:38
xG 1.64–0.31 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Suter – Weber16:19
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Klein2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:03
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Gordon – Beleskey – Macenauer9:37
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Cogliano9:06
xG 0.17–0.47 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–3
- McMillan – Holland – Smith-Pelly5:35
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Sbisa9:12
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler3:52
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler14:23
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).