Thu, Nov 10, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 05 | 03 | 00 | 1 | 322 |
| STL | 08 | 113 | 117 | 02 | 0 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:27TORJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:02TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 8:01STLJason ArnottPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Carlo Colaiacovo · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 18:04STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 2. TOR Phil Kessel scored
- 3. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 4. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 5. STL Matt D'Agostini stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:45STLPatrik Berglund: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:29STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:52STLMatt D'Agostini: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:02TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:37TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:57TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:59TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:46TORBen Scrivens: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Dupuis – Brown6:20
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak11:35
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Steckel – Frattin8:39
xG 0.32–1.16 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:44
xG 0.37–1.22 (23%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Komisarek14:26
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:32
xG 0.51–1.02 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner12:44
xG 0.18–1.29 (12%)attempts 4–20goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Steen8:07
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka6:54
xG 0.51–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund10:17
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Grachev4:34
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo17:19
xG 1.23–0.45 (73%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk2:05
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:26
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).