Thu, Nov 10, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 214 | 010 | 00 | 333 |
| COL | 012 | 119 | 216 | 14 | 451 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:36NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:34NYIBrian RolstonAssists: PA Parenteau, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 8:00NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Matt Moulson, Mark Streit · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 19:39COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: David Jones, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–1
- P3 6:07COLMilan HejdukAssists: Shane O'Brien, Joakim Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 10:35COLJan HejdaAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:39COLKyle QuinceyPPGWGAssists: Milan Hejduk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:53NYIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 5:53COLShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:00NYIBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:41COLTJ Galiardi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27COLRyan Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:27NYIMatt Martin: Instigator2 min
- P1 18:27NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27NYIMatt Martin: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 1:47COLDavid Jones: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:47NYISteve Staios: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:47NYISteve Staios: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:14COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:33NYIMatt Moulson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:12NYIJay Pandolfo: Holding2 min
- P3 18:17COLDaniel Winnik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 1:53NYIAl Montoya: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Parenteau – Nielsen9:16
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Pandolfo – Bailey – Martin5:17
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Moulson – Grabner – Tavares8:28
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Comeau – Okposo7:46
xG 0.05–0.33 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Streit2:24
xG 0.38–0.03 (94%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:49
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
- Staios – Streit11:52
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Galiardi – Duchene5:38
xG 0.83–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:02
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Galiardi2:03
xG 0.05–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Porter – McLeod3:15
xG 0.01–0.04 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Wilson12:56
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Quincey – O'Brien13:39
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda10:17
xG 0.12–0.77 (14%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).