Thu, Nov 10, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Montréal Canadiens 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 017 | 211 | 07 | 11 | 336 |
| PHX | 17 | 017 | 110 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Cal O'Reilly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:28MTLBrian GiontaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 17:46MTLTravis MoenAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 5:50PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Keith Yandle, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 1:45MTLJosh GorgesGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:16MTLBrian Gionta: Interference2 min
- P1 16:08PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P2 7:22MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moen – Plekanec11:27
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Cole – Darche – Desharnais3:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moen – Eller2:01
xG 0.02–0.01 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Palushaj – Eller3:39
xG 0.24–0.24 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spacek – Weber7:45
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Spacek – Emelin5:01
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban18:16
xG 0.43–0.56 (44%)attempts 24–19goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestTorres – O'Sullivan – Chipchura5:50
xG 0.56–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:52
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Torres – Chipchura – Boedker4:12
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski4:09
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson16:19
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle16:59
xG 0.88–0.42 (67%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Klesla – Schlemko17:49
xG 1.03–0.93 (53%)attempts 19–30goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).