Thu, Nov 10, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 010 | 17 | 122 |
| SJS | 07 | 318 | 011 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:34SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 15:34SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 18:39SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Michal Handzus · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 13:33MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Nick Schultz · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:08MINMarco Scandella: Illegal stick2 min
- P1 5:38SJSDouglas Murray: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:24MINDany Heatley: Interference2 min
- P1 9:19MINDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:41MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58SJSRyane Clowe: Interference2 min
- P2 13:45MINMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:48MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:48SJSJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:50SJSDan Boyle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi11:37
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Gillies3:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Clutterbuck5:59
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Heatley – Koivu – Johnson3:57
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Falk – Prosser11:40
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Schultz – Zidlicky14:23
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 4–14goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:26
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Clowe10:57
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture9:20
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn10:32
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins5:54
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun12:41
xG 0.64–0.16 (79%)attempts 23–7goals 1–1
- Boyle – Murray13:25
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- White – Burns10:57
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).