Fri, Nov 11, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 112 | 09 | 135 |
| NYR | 18 | 015 | 417 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43NYRSean AveryAssists: Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 16:22CARAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Zach Boychuk, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 10:47NYRDan GirardiPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 10:56NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Callahan, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 13:47NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Michael Sauer, Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 18:26NYRBrad RichardsUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:04NYRMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:59CARBryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:45CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:27NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:54CAREric Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner11:25
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Staal – Boychuk13:08
xG 0.88–1.14 (44%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- LaRose – Dwyer – Sutter9:57
xG 0.48–0.77 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Tlusty6:19
xG 0.16–1.01 (14%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain11:54
xG 1.32–0.59 (69%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Allen – McBain2:07
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Harrison16:52
xG 0.49–1.28 (28%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan13:58
xG 1.70–0.42 (80%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Callahan4:27
xG 1.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Richards – Boyle – Callahan8:02
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Avery – Christensen – Deveaux4:32
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh20:39
xG 2.32–0.94 (71%)attempts 22–21goals 2–0
- Sauer – Del Zotto16:17
xG 1.32–0.89 (60%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Eminger10:42
xG 0.75–0.47 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).