Sat, Nov 12, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 09 | 17 | 223 |
| BOS | 012 | 310 | 313 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:40BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 13:29BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 13:45BOSNathan HortonGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 5:28BOSChris KellyAssists: Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 7:11BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 9:52BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Tyler Seguin, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 13:20BUFMarc-Andre GragnaniPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Luke Adam · Slap, 0.02 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:56BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:12BOSMilan Lucic: Charging2 min
- P1 14:50BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:08BUFVille Leino: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P2 14:05BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:01BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:50BOSZach Hamill: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:22BOSNathan Horton: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:20BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:20BOSShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Ellis – Kaleta4:47
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe2:04
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Gaustad – Gerbe4:34
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Roy – Stafford – Leino10:39
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Leopold13:32
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Sekera – Myers13:28
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–3
- Ehrhoff – Gragnani13:12
xG 0.18–1.38 (12%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Caron6:08
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:26
xG 0.63–0.22 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 3–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:28
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Hamill5:52
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – McQuaid3:42
xG 0.93–0.06 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid6:37
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Corvo – Seidenberg4:15
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).