Sat, Nov 12, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 013 | 317 | 340 |
| CAR | 15 | 28 | 213 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 15:51CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 19:03CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jeff Skinner · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 1:40PITJordan StaalAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 4:43PITJordan StaalSHAssists: Matt Cooke, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:18PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 15:26CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Tim Gleason, Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–4
- P3 17:30CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:05CARBryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:05PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:32CARZac Dalpe: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:55CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:55PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:55PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:55CARPatrick Dwyer: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:08PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:17CARJamie McBain: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:29PITMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:44CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
- P2 4:17CARTim Brent: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:31PITArron Asham: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:04PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:30CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Malkin – Neal7:12
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal7:38
xG 0.26–0.08 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Vitale – Tangradi2:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Tangradi4:25
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Niskanen12:01
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Orpik – Engelland12:15
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Martin – Letang13:10
xG 0.98–1.51 (40%)attempts 17–13goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Sutter11:39
xG 0.97–0.69 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner10:12
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 3–0
- Ponikarovsky – Brent – Dwyer7:36
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tlusty – Boychuk – Dalpe2:39
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Harrison15:13
xG 1.22–1.15 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Kaberle – Joslin11:33
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Allen – McBain11:51
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).