Sat, Nov 12, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 010 | 114 | 136 |
| CBJ | 110 | 013 | 14 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53CBJRyan JohansenAssists: James Wisniewski, Marc Methot · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 4:06CBJRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Vinny Prospal, Nikita Nikitin · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 16:15WPGMark StuartSHAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:13CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P2 1:41WPGMark Flood: Holding2 min
- P2 3:41WPGDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:40WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:40CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:17CBJGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:57CBJJohn Moore: Holding2 min
- P3 4:50CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:07WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44CBJJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:16WPGZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Umberger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Kane – Burmistrov7:34
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Wellwood – Slater – Glass6:40
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Ladd – Little2:47
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Thorburn – McArdle – Stapleton2:49
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFlood – Postma7:52
xG 1.00–0.31 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:10
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Stuart – Byfuglien13:21
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert4:02
xG 0.07–0.07 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Johansen10:01
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett8:49
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Carter14:24
xG 0.40–0.83 (32%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Nikitin14:15
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Moore9:57
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Methot13:41
xG 0.62–0.92 (40%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).