Sat, Nov 12, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 011 | 212 | 226 |
| LAK | 112 | 415 | 09 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49LAKColin FraserAssists: Ethan Moreau, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 2:00LAKAlec MartinezPPAssists: Justin Williams, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 6:49LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
- P2 11:44LAKSimon GagneAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 14:13LAKMatt GreeneAssists: Trent Hunter, Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 0:47MINCal ClutterbuckPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–5
- P3 12:23MINDarroll PoweAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Nate Prosser · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:09MINBrad Staubitz: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:12MINDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:38MINWarren Peters: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 5:01MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:01LAKBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20LAKSimon Gagne: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:39LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:39MINJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:22LAKJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P3 13:21MINWarren Peters: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:21LAKColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:07MINCal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:53MINColton Gillies: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:23LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Peters – Staubitz – Gillies5:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe8:11
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi8:13
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Heatley – Koivu – Johnson9:36
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Prosser3:18
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Spurgeon4:28
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Falk – Spurgeon2:13
xG 0.01–0.05 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richards – Richardson8:28
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Moreau – Fraser – Lewis7:26
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Gagne – Williams – Kopitar10:22
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hunter – Stoll – Clifford7:34
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty11:16
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Martinez11:21
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Scuderi – Johnson11:59
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).