Sun, Nov 13, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 118 | 19 | 335 |
| FLA | 010 | 17 | 116 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:10PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Wayne Simmonds, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 6:50PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Jakub Voracek, Max Talbot · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 10:20FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 4:14PHIMatt ReadGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
- P3 19:52FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:04PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:03FLAJack Skille: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:37PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 8:21FLAKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:11PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P1 15:27FLAMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:27PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:26FLAShawn Matthias: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:15PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:44FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:53PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:13PHIMax Talbot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:14FLAJason Garrison: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:14FLAStephen Weiss: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:14FLAStephen Weiss: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:18FLASean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux6:53
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds8:24
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier3:25
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Read5:51
xG 0.17–0.69 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn9:28
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Lilja – Meszaros7:24
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Meszaros2:09
xG 0.05–0.06 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Kopecky – Santorelli2:58
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg5:39
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Goc – Bergenheim – Dadonov2:40
xG 0.08–0.25 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson7:09
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Garrison – Kulikov2:39
xG 0.05–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison7:13
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).