Sun, Nov 13, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 28 | 07 | 323 |
| CHI | 310 | 211 | 114 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:29CHISteve MontadorAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 11:41EDMRyan SmythAssists: Jordan Eberle, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 16:11CHISteve MontadorPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 0:22CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 6:17EDMJordan EberleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 7:47CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
- P2 19:15EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 18:15CHIDaniel CarcilloENAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:21EDMJordan Eberle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28CHIRostislav Olesz: Holding2 min
- P2 4:07EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:23CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:01EDMRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:01CHIViktor Stalberg: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:17EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi7:53
xG 0.17–0.43 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Belanger – Eager – Petrell7:31
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:29
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Eberle11:28
xG 0.81–1.30 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Peckham10:50
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Smid – Petry2:54
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Potter – Peckham3:29
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Stalberg – Toews11:18
xG 1.48–0.62 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 3–1
- Bickell – Frolik – Kruger10:40
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Sharp – Carcillo – Kane4:43
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mayers – Brunette – Olesz3:06
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy13:30
xG 0.91–0.36 (72%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Montador – Keith5:34
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook8:00
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).