Mon, Nov 14, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 29 | 17 | 528 |
| CAR | 17 | 18 | 15 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 8:50PHIMax TalbotAssists: Matt Read, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 19:59CARPatrick DwyerSHAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 2:45PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 6:57PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Chris Pronger · Deflected, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 12:01CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 4:36CARPatrick DwyerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–3
- P3 16:09PHIMatt ReadAssists: Jakub Voracek, Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:57CARBryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:57PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:51CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33PHIZac Rinaldo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:38CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:32CARJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P3 0:32PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:24CARTim Brent: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:06CARTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:04PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:44CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference2 min
- P3 16:25PHIAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min
- P3 16:25CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:52PHIAndreas Lilja: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brent won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Voracek – Read7:05
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk – Couturier5:09
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux7:21
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Brière – van Riemsdyk – Simmonds9:47
xG 0.28–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle13:09
xG 0.87–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Timonen – Coburn9:48
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Lilja – Meszaros11:27
xG 0.34–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Sutter12:15
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Tlusty – Boychuk – Dalpe2:35
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Brent – Dwyer8:24
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner10:51
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gleason – Harrison8:09
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Kaberle – McBain5:44
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Allen – McBain9:01
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).