Mon, Nov 14, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 116 | 15 | 232 |
| WPG | 216 | 29 | 114 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51WPGEvander KaneAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Alexander Burmistrov · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:02WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Evander Kane · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 7:49WPGMark FloodPPGWGAssists: Tim Stapleton, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 10:47TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 12:14WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Johnny Oduya, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 10:04WPGTim StapletonAssists: Tanner Glass · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 10:26TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:22WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:21WPGMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:51WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 1:51WPGZach Bogosian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:40TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48WPGJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:31WPGAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:15TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:15TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P3 19:15WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos8:19
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Hall – Moore – Shannon3:44
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Shannon – Purcell2:24
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Downie – Connolly2:52
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilroy – Hedman2:44
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gilroy2:38
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kubina – Hedman2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd9:58
xG 0.77–0.13 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Jaffray – Wheeler – Stapleton5:51
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Little – Kane – Burmistrov10:34
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:52
xG 0.28–0.49 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian13:30
xG 1.34–0.34 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Flood – Kulda13:04
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Byfuglien16:44
xG 0.49–0.39 (55%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).