Tue, Nov 15, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 210 | 013 | 07 | 05 | 2 | 335 |
| TOR | 012 | 09 | 211 | 05 | 0 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54PHXShane DoanAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:18PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 2:08TORMike KomisarekAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Joey Crabb · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 4:41TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 2. PHX Patrick O'Sullivan scored
- 3. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:19PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:53TORJoffrey Lupul: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:14PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:29TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:22
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Doan – O'Reilly – Boedker11:10
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Torres – O'Sullivan – Chipchura6:23
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski10:39
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson17:12
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle15:07
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Klesla – Schlemko16:24
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 15–27goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin8:45
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Crabb – Dupuis – Brown3:35
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Steckel – MacArthur4:31
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak16:49
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Komisarek13:25
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson16:45
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gardiner15:39
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).