Tue, Nov 15, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 114 | 18 | 28 | 430 |
| NYI | 15 | 016 | 112 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43NYRSean AveryAssists: Brian Boyle, Michael Sauer · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:06NYIFrans NielsenAssists: PA Parenteau, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:07NYRSteve EmingerAssists: Ryan Callahan, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 6:58NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 15:05NYRBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:59NYRRyan CallahanENAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 19:04NYIMike Mottau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:04NYRSean Avery: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:09NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:09NYIMike Mottau: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54NYRSteve Eminger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:42NYRErik Christensen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:47NYRRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:32NYIMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:01NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:14NYIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:16NYRBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P3 6:18NYRArtem Anisimov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:12NYIMichael Grabner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan8:00
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Callahan3:31
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Dubinsky – Callahan8:09
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Avery3:19
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Eminger7:11
xG 0.57–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:09
xG 1.19–0.78 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Sauer – Del Zotto15:07
xG 1.10–0.84 (57%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Rolston – Parenteau – Nielsen9:06
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Bailey – Martin7:46
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Comeau – Niederreiter5:41
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Moulson – Grabner – Tavares11:32
xG 0.57–1.05 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Jurcina6:08
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Staios – Mottau2:16
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Mottau – Jurcina5:27
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).