Tue, Nov 15, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 09 | 04 | 122 |
| STL | 17 | 119 | 011 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07DETDrew MillerAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 17:19STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 10:16STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:14STLChris Stewart: Checking from behind5 min
- P1 11:14STLChris Stewart: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:07DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:14STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:04STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P3 2:34STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:03STLJason Arnott: Interference2 min
- P3 12:31STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:46DETMike Commodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:06DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:11DETNicklas Lidstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Hudler – Abdelkader – Helm9:17
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Franzen8:05
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Emmerton6:16
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Cleary – Datsyuk9:04
xG 0.13–0.95 (12%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Kronwall2:37
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Ericsson10:24
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Commodore – Kindl4:40
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie9:26
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Sobotka8:20
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund2:51
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nichol – Porter – Grachev3:16
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo11:50
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Polak – Russell10:08
xG 0.91–0.33 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:03
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).