Tue, Nov 15, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 015 | 117 | 140 |
| NSH | 010 | 08 | 313 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 15:14WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 15:42NSHMartin EratAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 19:35NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 19:40NSHShea WeberENAssists: Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:29WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
- P1 18:01NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 19:05NSHRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:56WSHAlexander Semin: Interference2 min
- P2 15:43NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Laich – Semin10:59
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Knuble – Halpern – Hendricks11:53
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom12:30
xG 0.58–0.73 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Ward – Johansson – Eakin10:12
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Alzner15:51
xG 1.21–0.44 (73%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Schultz – Carlson16:50
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Erskine – Wideman16:36
xG 0.86–0.99 (47%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Wilson – Smith11:57
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:35
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Bergfors4:39
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling3:25
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBlum – Hillen11:27
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber17:34
xG 0.95–0.79 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 2–0
- Klein – Hillen2:03
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).