Wed, Nov 16, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 08 | 013 | 025 |
| MTL | 216 | 216 | 04 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15MTLMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Carey Price · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:16MTLYannick WeberPPAssists: Erik Cole, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:13MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 19:21MTLTravis MoenAssists: Scott Gomez, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:10MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:42MTLFrédéric St-Denis: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:37CARBryan Allen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:52CARTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:27MTLDavid Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:09MTLScott Gomez: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:47CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:44MTLFrédéric St-Denis: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:35MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:35MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:35CARTim Brent: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:35CARTim Brent: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:16MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Sutter9:25
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Brent – Dwyer – Boychuk2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner8:18
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Tlusty – Boychuk – Dalpe3:23
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoslin – McBain12:25
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Harrison15:58
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
- Allen – Gleason14:47
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Nokelainen – Palushaj6:37
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Moen – Eller9:22
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec10:31
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:32
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSt-Denis – Weber11:54
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban17:22
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Emelin – Diaz12:34
xG 0.11–0.44 (21%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).