Thu, Nov 17, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 014 | 113 | 134 |
| TBL | 15 | 16 | 27 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38TBLVincent LecavalierUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:08TBLBrett ConnollyPPGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 2:04TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Eric Brewer, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 15:49TBLVincent LecavalierENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG0–4
- P3 16:49PITTyler KennedyAssists: Paul Martin, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:21PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
- P1 12:02TBLRyan Shannon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:29PITTyler Kennedy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:13PITMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:59TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 1:06PITDeryk Engelland: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:43PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:31TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:35TBLNate Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:14PITJames Neal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:39TBLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:08TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:08PITMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Malkin – Neal10:28
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Vitale2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal6:30
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal3:15
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Engelland9:21
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang11:09
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Picard – Niskanen7:29
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos10:18
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Moore – Shannon – Downie3:14
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Pyatt8:26
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kubina – Hedman2:17
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman9:08
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Kubina – Bergeron9:58
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).