Thu, Nov 17, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 015 | 07 | 132 |
| WPG | 111 | 313 | 07 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 7:51WPGEvander KaneAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 6:38WPGEvander KaneGWGAssists: Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 8:31WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 10:54WPGKyle WellwoodPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Tim Stapleton · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:08WSHDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
- P1 13:55WPGArturs Kulda: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:16WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 7:05WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:51WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:51WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:04WSHRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:23WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22WPGJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
- P2 16:02WSHAlexander Semin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:04WSHMichal Neuvirth: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:52WPGTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Johansson – Eakin7:08
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Chimera – Laich – Semin6:04
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:09
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Knuble – Halpern – Hendricks3:49
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Carlson10:42
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Alzner12:24
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Hamrlik – Wideman2:12
xG 0.03–0.02 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Kane – Burmistrov8:36
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Jaffray – Wheeler – Stapleton2:22
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass8:41
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd8:27
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Byfuglien11:15
xG 0.87–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian12:40
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Flood – Kulda13:23
xG 0.28–0.64 (31%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).